Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 37.703510 41.010483 44.639073 48.947427 53.965313 59.678197 66.752525
2025-03-09 32.534469 36.846396 41.909563 48.403137 56.680030 67.132122 81.782576
2025-03-16 28.920366 33.529799 39.164347 46.744921 56.994246 70.903988 92.302846
2025-03-23 27.627192 32.744374 39.244736 48.414097 61.588537 80.922507 114.071312
2025-03-30 25.902702 31.175779 38.058635 48.107710 63.223701 86.823241 131.180843
2025-04-06 24.359573 29.678390 36.773944 47.430389 64.092758 91.559189 147.807224
2025-04-13 22.745514 27.950137 35.001216 45.808281 63.194515 93.062406 158.576690
2025-04-20 22.271803 27.725174 35.289288 47.254992 67.399891 104.452986 196.190183
2025-04-27 21.765716 27.406099 35.395044 48.400554 71.245637 116.166457 242.668244
2025-05-04 21.173328 26.916819 35.197224 49.014904 74.216939 126.927580 295.955640
2025-05-11 20.376659 26.081169 34.410396 48.561756 75.103749 133.320151 341.381013
2025-05-18 19.573768 25.191873 33.479935 47.770957 75.208190 137.901674 385.550060
2025-05-25 18.752430 24.262330 32.471706 46.831585 75.043182 142.234816 438.160011
2025-06-01 18.083895 23.531720 31.736873 46.318248 75.713966 149.158218 519.901545
2025-06-08 17.250020 22.513549 30.485988 44.772230 73.971925 148.858960 558.451066
2025-06-15 17.117658 22.549031 30.922452 46.328533 79.249008 171.421399 856.165552
2025-06-22 16.632098 22.017692 30.399409 46.043036 80.306108 181.253615 1108.429643
2025-06-29 16.115351 21.415634 29.725736 45.411622 80.451894 188.121355 1397.503274
2025-07-06 15.468812 20.587590 28.636594 43.897917 78.260743 185.680360 1507.132440
2025-07-13 15.377111 20.623863 28.998204 45.248051 83.387949 214.308959 3222.936295
2025-07-20 15.236680 20.574918 29.208992 46.315915 88.040527 245.082997 10694.526351
2025-07-27 15.020586 20.394535 29.180240 46.888155 91.496028 273.735382 299061.317024
2025-08-03 14.660411 19.967483 28.697125 46.466098 92.081135 288.010271 NaN